Better data will help in improving policies
India, March 2 -- India released its revised GDP data on Friday. The new series shifts the base year from 2011-12 to 2022-23, incorporates a gamut of new databases to make the calculations and has addressed procedural gaps, which will make the latest numbers more compliant with international standards. The growth rate itself (7.6%) doesn't show much of a change from what the first advance estimates based on the old series (7.4%) told us in January. The nominal growth number has gone up by a higher magnitude (8% to 8.6%), but the absolute nominal GDP value is now lower. This means the fiscal deficit for 2025-26 will increase marginally.
The central prognosis, as far as the economy is concerned, remains unchanged: The domestic consumption engine is holding the ship steady and strong despite external turbulence. To be sure, there's more to be said about GDP data than just its immediate significance. Among countries outside the advanced world, India punched way above its weight when it came to official statistics from its early years of Independence. This distinction came under strain as demand on the statistical system grew and its ability to keep up diminished. The problem, largely structural and politics-agnostic, turned worse under the current government because of delays in releasing data that were essential for revising numbers such as GDP and inflation. Some of the problems were self-inflicted (reports being scrapped) while exogenous factors triggered others (the pandemic, for instance). While the delay is yet to be addressed in the case of census data, it is heartening to see that the ministry of statistics has been delivering on its mandate with a new vigour and transparency. Most analysts have good things to say about the process followed for the revisions. This is good news. A robust radar is even more useful when you're navigating turbulent weather....
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