Bikaner, Sept. 2 -- Rajasthan is running short of rain just as its groundwater system is already running short of room. The state has received 295.11 mm rainfall against the normal 359.20 mm so far this monsoon, a 17.84% deficit, while its latest groundwater assessment shows annual extraction at 147.11% of the extractable resource. The rainfall deficit matters for groundwater because it is the principal source of natural groundwater recharge in Rajasthan. The latest Dynamic Ground Water Resources Assessment by the Central Ground qWater Board (CGWB) puts the state's annual groundwater recharge at 12.87 billion cubic metres (BCM), against an annual extractable groundwater resource of 11.62 BCM. Annual groundwater extraction, however, was estimated at 17.10 BCM, putting the state's stage of groundwater extraction at 147.11%. The Rajasthan government's own SDG portal also records the 147.11% extraction stage for 2025. The latest assessment shows that this is not a one-year imbalance. Rajasthan's annual groundwater extraction has remained above its annual extractable resource across successive assessments, even as the assessed annual recharge has moved up and down. The latest 2025 assessment classified 213 of the state's 302 groundwater assessment units as over-exploited and another 23 as critical. The five-year assessment series shows annual recharge rising from 12.24 BCM in 2020 to 12.87 BCM in 2025, while annual extraction increased from 16.63 BCM to 17.10 BCM. In every assessment, extraction remained higher than the annual extractable groundwater resource. The latest 2025 assessment therefore puts Rajasthan's groundwater balance at 12.87 BCM of annual recharge, 11.62 BCM of annual extractable resource and 17.10 BCM of annual extraction. The current rainfall deficit cannot be converted directly into a corresponding percentage decline in groundwater recharge. But the relationship is important because rainfall is a major component of the recharge estimated in the groundwater assessment. This means the amount and distribution of rainfall during the remaining monsoon will influence the groundwater balance, while the state is already starting from a position where annual extraction exceeds the annual extractable resource. The current monsoon has so far delivered 295.11 mm against a normal 359.20 mm. With the state facing a 17.84% seasonal deficit as of August 30, the remaining rainfall will determine how much additional water enters the system before the post-monsoon groundwater assessment. The 2025 comparison shows deterioration in several assessment units. In Jodhpur, the Luni assessment unit moved from 89.24% extraction in 2024 to 95.48% in 2025, changing from semi-critical to critical. In Nagaur, Parbatsar rose from 99.51% to 100.67%, moving from critical to over-exploited. In Barmer, Chohtan increased from 67.86% to 70.23%, moving from safe to semi-critical. Ganganagar rose from 67.75% to 70.74%, also moving from safe to semi-critical. Banswara's Anandpuri increased from 89.25% to 90.65%, moving from semi-critical to critical. The figures show that groundwater stress is not confined to assessment units already classified as over-exploited. Several units moved into a more stressed category between the 2024 and 2025 assessments. The 2025 CGWB comparison specifically records these changes as deterioration. At the state level, 213 of 302 assessment units - 70.53% - were classified as over-exploited in the 2025 assessment, while another 23 were classified as critical. The Rajasthan government's SDG portal independently records the same 147.11% stage of groundwater extraction and 70.53% over-exploited share for 2025. Rajasthan's current rainfall deficit therefore comes against a groundwater system that is already heavily dependent on extraction. The state has received 295.11 mm against 359.20 mm normal rainfall up to August 30, while the latest groundwater assessment records annual extraction of 17.10 BCM against an annual extractable resource of 11.62 BCM. The data does not establish that the 17.84% rainfall deficit has already caused groundwater extraction to rise in 2026. The available data establishes that Rajasthan is approaching the end of the 2026 monsoon with below-normal rainfall while its existing groundwater extraction remains substantially above the annual extractable resource....