Weaker monsoon, but weather hazards likely over Hindu Kush
New Delhi, June 12 -- A below-normal monsoon forecast for the Hindu Kush Himalaya region this season will not reduce the risk of floods, landslides and extreme weather events - and may, in combination with rising temperatures and depleted snow reserves, create conditions for multiple hazards simultaneously, according to the HKH Monsoon Outlook 2026 released on Thursday.
The outlook, covering Bhutan, India, Nepal and Pakistan among other countries in the Hindu Kush Himalaya belt, projected lower-than-normal rainfall alongside above-normal temperatures across much of the region. Scientists said the combination is more dangerous than either factor alone.
"Even in a weaker monsoon, short periods of intense rainfall remain a major concern. Communities and authorities need to closely follow short-term forecasts and advisories," said Manish Shrestha, Hydrologist at ICIMOD.
Long dry spells are likely to be followed by sudden heavy downpours - a pattern that creates conditions for flash floods and landslides, particularly in mountain valleys. "Even within a weaker monsoon, short and intense rainfall can still trigger flash floods and landslides in mountain valleys," said Navneet Yadav, team lead for Disaster Risk Reduction and Climate Resilience at Palladium India. htc...
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