Ukraine faces troop shortage at front after over 4 yrs of war
KYIV, Oct. 9 -- Kyiv's advances in drone tech and tactics have captured the world's attention. Despite this, one problem has plagued the country since the start of Russia's invasion: a shortage of combat ready troops. Ukraine always has been outmanned by Russia, but as the war drags through its fifth year, need for personnel is increasingly acute, commanders and analysts say, with some units at only half strength. There just aren't enough forces to fully exploit battlefield advantages resulting from drone innovations.
"Based on the equipment and the number of people we have today, we barely have enough to hold the sector we currently have," said a deputy commander of the Da Vinci Wolves battalion in Pokrovsk, a focus of Russia's offensive. "To move forward would inevitably mean greater losses," said the commander, who insisted on identifying himself only as "Afer" because of military rules.
Long-standing mobilisation problems, including draft dodging and desertion, make it harder for Ukraine to build its reserves, according to military experts, resulting in only incremental changes along the 1,250km front line. Ukraine needs to be able to commit forces quickly without taking them from elsewhere on the front. Otherwise, commanders have fewer options to turn a temporary advantage into a sustained operation, said Nick Reynolds of the UK-based Royal United Services Institute, a think tank.
The shortage means that units can't be rotated often enough, he said, "leading to exhaustion and, in turn, exacerbating casualties."
The Defence Ministry, which in July underwent a shake-up by President Volodymyr Zelensky, is trying to tackle the problem with reforms to mobiliation, training and the way the army is organised. Uneven performance by front-line units worsens the problem. Weaker formations suffer heavier losses, creating a cycle of high attrition and constant replenishment.
The ministry did not respond to requests for comment, but one of its officials summarised the problem by saying, "There just are not enough people."
Developing a new mobilisation policy, including encouraging deserters to return to duty, is among the most sensitive issues under consideration, said the official, who was not authorised to brief the media and spoke on condition of anonymity.
Former defence minister Mykhailo Fedorov, who was replaced by Yevhenii Khmara in the summer shake-up by Zelenskyy, had sought to reorganise the military around fewer but stronger units.
He wanted to reinforce those that performed well and disband the weaker ones. Khmara has said he wants to continue those changes.
But the reforms will take time. Yehor Cherniev, a member of parliament's defence committee, said lawmakers have yet to see mobilisation initiatives.
In June, Fedorov introduced reforms to military contracts designed to make infantry service more attractive by offering higher salaries and fixed terms of service.
Convincing Ukrainians who have little incentive to fight is a major challenge after more than four years of war, and the country is struggling to recruit enough troops from its estimated population of 39 million.
The pool of men aged 25-60 is relatively small following years of demographic decline from war-related displacement and migration. There are 6.8 million men aged 25-59, according to UN figures provided by Ukraine's National Health System, but that includes wounded veterans and men otherwise unable to serve....
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