S&P Global raises India to 'BBB' after 18 years
New Delhi, Aug. 15 -- Credit rating agency S&P Global has raised India's sovereign credit ratings from 'BBB-' to 'BBB' with a stable outlook on the country's "buoyant economic growth" while managing effects of the US tariffs, significantly reducing costs of corporate offshore borrowings and the sovereign debt.
The upgrade comes shortly after US President Donald Trump called India a "dead economy" and imposed a hefty punitive tariff on the country's exports to the US from August 27. The rating agency, however, said, "we do not expect the 50% tariffs (if imposed) to pose a material drag on growth" because of its limited sectoral impact that would be offset by the robustness of the Indian economy.
"India remains among the best performing economies in the world. It staged a remarkable comeback from the pandemic with real GDP growth over fiscal 2022 (year-end March 31) to fiscal 2024 averaging 8.8%, the highest in Asia-Pacific. We expect these growth dynamics to continue in the medium term, with GDP increasing 6.8% annually over the next three years," S&P Global said in a statement.
On the Trump administration's move to impose 25% punitive tariffs on Indian goods for purchasing Russian crude on top of 25% reciprocal tariff, the agency said even as the US is India's largest trading partner and Indian exports to America constitute about 2% of GDP, the exposure of Indian exports subjected to tariffs is lower at 1.2% of GDP after factoring in sectoral exemptions on pharmaceuticals and consumer electronics.
"Though this may eventually result in a one-off hit to growth, we envisage the overall impact to be marginal and will not derail India's long-term growth prospects," it added. Trump's initial 25% reciprocal tariff took effect on August 7, and an additional 25% penalty for purchasing Russian energy is set to kick in on August 27.
S&P Global downplayed the impact of the US' tariff actions and a strict embargo on India's Russian oil imports. "We believe the effect of U.S. tariffs on the Indian economy will be manageable. India is relatively less reliant on trade and about 60% of its economic growth stems from domestic consumption. We expect that in the event India has to switch from importing Russian crude oil, the fiscal cost, if fully borne by the government, will be modest given the narrow price differential between Russian crude and current international benchmarks."...
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