Washington, Aug. 24 -- "The Republican party and you are enabling him (Trump). You're all cowards and spineless," roared one voter in New York to loud cheers at a town hall in April. The subject of his frustration: the war with Iran. The target: Republican Congressman Mike Lawler. The 39-year-old lawmaker represents New York's 17th congressional district, a swing seat in one of the most solidly Democratic states in America. To win, Lawler styled himself a moderate pragmatist who could support Trump while representing a constituency that voted against him in 2024. But as Trump's unpopularity grows - in large part due to the Iran war - his position is in jeopardy. Democrats have made defeating Lawler a key priority. With less than 100 days left before the midterms, the war and its impact has dominated the campaign as few other issues have. For the Republicans, the war represents the greatest threat to their grip on power. For the Democrats, it's an opportunity to restore their fortunes and effectively check Trump's authority. "We've gone through months that everybody sat back and said, 'Oh, it'll be OK. It'll be OK.' And I've been the voice that's been saying, 'You people are living in a cave if you don't see that the folks out there, the Toby and Ediths out there, are hurting,'" Republican Congressman Jim Justice from West Virginia was quoted as saying to reporters. Even Speaker Mike Johnson, the party's senior most lawmaker, acknowledged that the Iran war has "drug on" and is the cause of high energy prices. HT spoke to strategists, elected lawmakers and commentators on both sides to unpack the impact of the war on the polls. By most estimates, the war is among the most unpopular conflicts waged by a US President. Pollster Nate Silver estimated last week that roughly 60% of voters oppose the conflict with Tehran as exhaustion with foreign wars and dismay at rising energy prices sets in. Few issues in US politics unite voters and parties more than a desire to see energy prices stay low. Failing on this count often carries sharp political consequences. A 2016 study found that a mere $0.10 in the price of gasoline leads to a 0.6% drop in the President's approval rating. Sure enough, energy prices have risen by roughly 30% since the war began in February and Trump's approval rating has plunged to 33%. Worse, polls by Politico find that solid majorities of voters - even those who identify themselves as adherents of the Make America Great Again (MAGA) movement - blame the Iran war for rising energy prices. Republicans told HT that dissatisfaction with the Iran war is evident when they speak with voters on the ground. Prominent conservative influencers like Tucker Carlson, who played a key role in mobilising Trump's faithful supporters to back the President, have now fallen out with him over the Iran war. "Trump won in 2024 because he was able to appeal to MAGA Republicans, traditional Republicans, and independents. Most Americans believe Trump is overly focused on foreign policy rather than on domestic issues," says Andrew Day, senior editor at the American Conservative, a magazine which has been sharply critical of the Iran war. "I believe Trump will try very hard to find an accommodation with Iran before the midterms. But Iran knows Trump is desperate for a deal and that the escalation he threatens would only make Trump's political situation worse. So Iran is driving a very hard bargain," says Phil Gordon, vice president at the Brookings Institution and former national security adviser to Kamala Harris. Prominent Democrats on the campaign trail sense that the Iran war could spark a wave election that could propel the party to power. "It is starting to feel like a wave is starting to build. We'll have better data sets in September, but it does feel like on the ground when I'm talking to voters, the voters are very angry. They're disappointed and angry at the president. And if that continues to build, you could see a wave election coming up," says Democratic Congressman Ami Bera....