Refiners brace for crude volatility after Gulf clash
New Delhi, June 29 -- The fragile calm in West Asia has been shattered by fresh US-Iran strikes, clouding the outlook for global oil markets and Indian refiners after last week's easing in crude prices.
The latest exchange began after Washington alleged that Iran had targeted another commercial vessel in the Strait of Hormuz. US central command responded with fresh strikes on Iranian military targets on Saturday, following which Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) attacked US military installations in Kuwait and Bahrain.
Indian refiners, meanwhile, are taking a cautious wait-and-watch approach despite tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz beginning to recover and the US temporarily waiving sanctions on Iran until August 21, according to a refinery executive who declined to be identified.
"Ships have just started to transit the Strait of Hormuz," the executive said. "Another flare-up in the region would be concerning."
Analysts expect the renewed hostilities to inject fresh volatility into oil markets when trading resumes on Monday, amid concerns over the longevity of the memorandum of understanding (MoU) signed between the two countries on June 17, as investors reassess the risk of supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz, the world's most critical oil shipping chokepoint.
On Friday, Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude prices retreated to pre-conflict levels, with the August contracts falling 4.34% and 3.74%, respectively, to settle at $71.99 and $69.23 a barrel.
According to Jim Burkhand, vice president and head of research for oil markets, energy and mobility at S&P Global Energy, Brent crude could remain around $70-75 per barrel in the near term before rising to $80-90 per barrel in the second half of 2026 as inventories tighten.
Burkhard said that even if flows through the Strait of Hormuz and Gulf production recover, global oil inventories would continue to tighten through June and July....
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