Peace rally lifts markets after turbulent week
Mumbai, June 13 -- A quick sprint on Friday helped Indian markets close a volatile week with solid gains, as signs of peace in West Asia rekindled investor optimism worldwide. As crude oil slipped below $90 a barrel, buyers who stayed away during a turbulent week trooped in, helping the Street clock the best gains in eight weeks.
The Sensex rose 1.7% over the week, while the Nifty gained 1.1%. Most of the gains came on Friday, when the Nifty jumped 2% to close at 23,622.90 and the Sensex 2.3% to 75,527.94, the highest close for both since 8 April. On that day, Indian equities had rallied nearly 4%, cheered by a US-Iran ceasefire announcement.
Volatility cooled sharply: the India VIX, which measures expected market volatility, declined from around 17 to 14.7 during the week, slipping below the key 15-mark for the first time since the war erupted in West Asia. On 27 February, a day before the conflict flared, the VIX was at 13.70.
US President Donald Trump on Thursday announced that a deal to end the conflict and reopen the crucial Strait of Hormuz could be signed as early as this weekend, lifting sentiment globally, even as Tehran said that a final decision was pending. Trump also called off military strikes on the Islamic Republic hours after threatening to take control of its oil industry.
Market participants agreed that easing geopolitical risk is positive, but remain divided on whether India can outperform in the near term.
"Predicting market movements over the next week or month remains challenging, given ongoing global uncertainties. However, as concerns around the AI-driven trade unwind and greater clarity emerges on the US-Iran conflict, India's medium- to long-term outlook remains highly compelling," said Kuunal Shah, fund manager at Carnelian Asset Management & Advisors.
Vipul Bhowar, executive director and head of equities at Waterfield Advisors, said India could see a catch-up rally if crude prices stay subdued and the US-Iran peace deal materializes. Lower US bond yields and crude prices at eight-week lows, he said, are supportive for India, especially rate-sensitive and consumption-driven sectors.
Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) net sold equities worth Rs.1,145.33 crore on Friday.
Sector trends reflected selective optimism. Banking and FMCG stocks were among the week's top performers, gaining nearly 3% and 1%, respectively. Power and IT were the key laggards, falling around 3% each.
The fall in crude prices shifted investor attention to sectors that benefit from lower input costs. Karthick Jonagadla, smallcase manager and MD & CEO of Quantace Research, said near-term leadership could stay with oil marketing companies, paints, tyres and airlines as long as Brent crude remains below $90. The first reaction was already visible, with refiner-marketers Hindustan Petroleum Corp. Ltd, Bharat Petrolum Corp. Ltd and Indian Oil Co. Ltd gaining, while upstream firms ONGC Ltd and Oil India Ltd came under pressure.
Shah said banking and financial services may continue to lead market gains, supported by healthy credit growth and better business momentum. He sees scope in select capital goods and auto ancillaries.
Bhowar expects increased market polarity, with paints, aviation and IT likely to lead, while traditional high-yield defensive stocks and upstream oil firms may underperform.
Compared with key global markets, India delivered a mixed performance during the week. It did better than Japan, Malaysia and South Korea, but trailed Indonesia, France and Brazil, where weekly gains ranged between 2% and 8%.
Jonagadla remained cautious. "Until FX, crude and trade visibility align, India can participate in rallies, but is unlikely to lead them," he said, adding that reports saying the India-US trade pact first part may come only by mid-July could keep investors picky....
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