New Delhi, April 9 -- The Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) projections for growth and inflation suggest that the Indian economy, thanks to the war in West Asia, has gone from a Goldilocks - low-inflation and high-growth - environment towards potential stagflation - high-inflation and low-growth. RBI now expects the Indian economy to grow at 6.9% in 2026-27 with risks tilted to the downside. In the current GDP series, which has annual GDP growth data till 2023-24, this is the lowest and the first sub-7% growth. Inflation projection for 2026-27 now stands at 4.6% and inflation risks for 2026-27, according to RBI, are tilted to the upside. With the situation still fluid - it remains to be seen whether the two-week ceasefire in the US-Israel war on Iran announced early Wednesday morning holds and how long does it take to normalise production and shipping of oil and gas from West Asia - RBI has chosen to wait and watch rather than make tangible changes to the key policy tools at its disposal. Its April Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting, which ended on Wednesday, decided to leave the policy rate and monetary policy stance unchanged at 5.25% and neutral. And the signalling which could have been seen in changes in RBI's annual growth and inflation forecasts is missing because the February MPC meeting postponed releasing full-year forecasts for 2026-27 before the government released growth and inflation data under the new series. RBI's Monetary Policy Report issued on Wednesday, projects a 6.6% GDP growth for 2027-28 assuming crude oil at $75/barrel. World Bank's South Asia Regional Outlook released on Wednesday projects a GDP growth of 6.6% and 7% for India in 2026-27 and 2027-28. "RBI kept repo rate and stance unchanged, and the tone of statement was very balanced...While the statement exudes calm and assurance by alluding to India's better macro fundamentals before this crisis, it is also bringing in the realism that there are now downside risks to growth forecasts and upside risks to inflation forecasts. Heightened uncertainty during a supply side shock has made the MPC to be on a "wait and watch" mode as the temporary ceasefire in the middle east conflict offers the opportunity to assess the balance of risks", Samiran Chakraborty, Chief India Economist, Citibank said in a note. While MPC did not give tangible estimates of the war's disruptive impact on the economy, it did flag possible channels through which the adverse effects will be felt. The Governor's statement assured markets that its recent interventions in the currency markets ought to be seen as attempts to manage volatility....