iPhone sales may flatten after heady decade
New Delhi, June 8 -- The famed halo of Apple Inc.'s iPhone may be approaching a glass ceiling in India. After nearly a decade of breakneck growth, analysts expect the iPhone maker's sales growth in the country to slow as it nears the limits of the premium smartphone market.
In the past seven years, iPhone sales in India grew tenfold-from 1.5 million units in the 2019 calendar year to 15 million in 2025, according to International Data Corporation (IDC) India. Apple is now seen selling about 16 million iPhones in India in 2026, up about 7%, market research shows.
The slowdown would come despite India remaining one of Apple's brightest markets. For over four years, Apple's outgoing chief executive, Tim Cook, has highlighted India's record quarterly revenue. On 30 April, he said in a post-earnings call that he was "over the moon excited" for India.
At least three analysts Mint spoke with believe that Apple's iPhone-driven growth trajectory in India is likely to start slowing down as the premium smartphone segment matures.
"The slowdown in the growth pace of iPhones is not to Apple's discredit, but more because of the market being slow already, and there being only that much room for premium phones among consumers," said Navkendar Singh, associate vice-president at independent market research firm, IDC India. "It is also important to note that this is not an ordinary year, and economic disruptions would further halt discretionary purchases, such as a premium smartphone."
To be sure, the slowdown in iPhone sales may not necessarily mean Apple's revenue growth in India will stall. While Apple does not give out nationwide revenue figures, a report by brokerage firm Kotak Mutual Fund on 22 May projected Apple's India revenue to have hit an all-time high of Rs.1.42 lakh crore in fiscal year 2026 (FY26)-up 80% over Rs.79,061 crore in FY25. Apple is yet to file its official annual report with the ministry.
Analysts say Apple could offset slower iPhone volume growth through expansion into other product categories and tapping new customer segments. "The consumer electronics market is stagnating... With Apple only catering to the premium range and its market share by annual volume of smartphone sales hitting nearly 10%, there is only so much growth that any company can realistically pursue in a saturating market," said Rishi Padhi, principal analyst at Gartner.
Another avenue to pursue is education, which Apple is looking at. But this is a very small share. So for its next growth phase, Apple will look toward enterprise deals.Apple is India's single-largest-grossing brand by revenue in the $45-billion smartphone market, with estimates pegging its iPhone revenue from India at close to Rs.1 lakh crore, or about $9.7 billion in 2025.
The company has been the mainstay of India's push to generate electronics exports, benefitting assembly firms such as Foxconn's India arm, as well as homegrown Tata Electronics.
Apple did not respond to an emailed request for comment on its consumer and enterprise sales strategies till press time....
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