India's top tech firms divided over AI-driven revenue deflation
Bengaluru, Oct. 20 -- Nearly four years after ChatGPT ignited the generative artificial intelligence (AI) boom, India's top information technology (IT) leaders remain sharply divided on when-or if-AI-driven revenue deflation will stop eating into their core business. At their second-quarter earnings announcements, chief executives at four of the country's largest IT services exporters offered conflicting assessments on the trajectory and persistence of AI-led revenue cannibalization.
The lack of consensus highlights a broader structural challenge facing the firms. As Fortune 500 clients demand higher productivity through automation, legacy coding, software development and maintenance contracts are shrinking. This persistent uncertainty, coupled with a lag in replacing eroded legacy revenue with new AI-native business lines, has weighed heavily on investor sentiment, causing shares across the sector to underperform broader market benchmarks.
The divergent commentary reflects a sector still struggling to price and deliver automation at scale.
"As model and agentic capabilities continue to improve, we think the efficiency hurdle is likely to rise, requiring an increasing amount of new scope, share gains, and new AI-related work to offset pressure on the legacy base," Keith Bachman, an analyst at BMO Capital Markets, wrote in a 14 October note.
Among the top players, HCL Technologies Ltd stood out as the sole voice warning that revenue deflation remains an active headwind.
Vijayakumar was among the first Indian IT executives to flag the deflationary risk of AI. HCLTech reported $219 million in advanced AI revenue for the quarter, up 28% sequentially....
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