In a bullish signal, market tiptoes to higher highs and higher lows
India, Aug. 22 -- India's equity markets may be turning a corner. The Nifty 50 is showing signs of a sturdier recovery from its April low, with the index forming a series of higher highs and higher lows even as crude prices, geopolitical tensions and weak foreign flows continue to weigh on sentiment.
The index has gained 6.85% since 2 April, when it had hit a low of 22,182.55. Subsequent lows have stayed above that level through 20 August, with the index coming closest to its 2 April low on 8 June, when it fell to 23,070.15.
The Nifty also moved above its 2 April intraday high of 22,782.30 and continued to touch higher highs, reaching 24,774.30 on 3 August. The index closed at 24,252 on Friday 21 August, as against the previous close of 24,231.85.
A pattern of higher highs and higher lows suggests that buyers are increasingly willing to enter at higher price levels, with rising support pointing to an improving medium-term trend. Nifty last displayed a similar movement in 2018, about eight years ago, after a period of consolidation. This shift suggests the Nifty may be moving out of its corrective phase, though it is too early to call a sustained uptrend, analysts said.
"Since the 2 April low, Nifty has witnessed a positive change in market structure, forming successive higher tops and higher bottoms, indicating an improvement in the medium-term trend," said Hitesh Tailor, technical research analyst at Choice Broking.
"The market has consistently found support at progressively higher levels, suggesting that buyers are entering at higher prices. This indicates that Nifty has gradually transitioned from a corrective phase towards a constructive bullish structure," said Tailor.
The improving market structure is notable because it has emerged despite a difficult backdrop.
Crude oil prices have risen amid geopolitical tensions, while US and Japanese bond yields have climbed, the dollar has strengthened against the rupee and foreign institutional flows have remained weak.
"The resilience is notable because the overall news flow has not improved significantly in the last two months," said Apurva Sheth, Head of Market Perspectives and Research, SAMCO Securities.
Sudeep Shah, head of technical and derivatives research at SBI Securities said that despite a challenging global backdrop, marked by rising crude oil prices, heightened tensions between the US and Iran, elevated bond yields in the US and Japan, a stronger dollar against the rupee and relatively weak foreign institutional investor(FII) flows, the Indian market has shown resilience.
Liquidity from retail investors and domestic institutional investors (DIIs) has provided support and helped limit the downside, he added.
FIIs have just turned net buyers and bought Rs.45,796 crore worth of Indian equities in July and August so far. But they have still net sold shares worth Rs.1.09 trillion over the period started April, while DIIs have net bought shares worth Rs.2.8 trillion.
A similar higher-top and higher-bottom formation was witnessed in 2012 and 2018, when the Nifty developed a constructive market structure following periods of correction and consolidation.
In 2012, after making a low of around 4,770.35 on 4 June, the index subsequently witnessed a strong upside rally, supported by a sequence of higher highs and higher lows, said Tailor.
The index gained 21.97% from its 4 June low to the end of the calendar.
Similarly, in 2018, the Nifty developed a constructive market structure following a period of consolidation. Post this phase, the index went on to witness a sustained upside move, although the journey was accompanied by intermittent corrections and consolidation phases.
Also in 2018, after touching a low of 10,004.55 on 26 October, the index gained 14% over the following year.
Tailor said such a transition from a corrective phase into a well-defined higher-high and higher-low structure can create a favourable environment for medium- to long-term trend continuation, as rising support levels indicate that buying interest is gradually shifting to higher price zones....
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