New Delhi, March 24 -- The Delhi government could undershoot its tax revenue projections set in last year's budget, but this may not put pressure on the fiscal math as overall spending so far has been muted, according to data from the State Economic Survey 2025-26 tabled in the assembly on Monday. The survey expects Delhi's Gross State Domestic Product (GSDP) to grow at 8.5% in 2025-26. Almost 90% of Delhi's economy is services. Per capita income, expected to be Rs.5,31,610 in current prices in 2025-26, will be two and a half times above the national average, the survey said. The Economic Survey was tabled by chief minister Rekha Gupta, who also holds the finance portfolio, a day before her government presents its second annual budget on Tuesday. With an expected nominal GSDP growth rate of 9.42%, it will take extraordinary tax buoyancy for the government to meet its 2025-26 Budget Estimates (BE) of tax collections, which assumed a 15.54% growth over the previous year's collections. Tax buoyancy is the change in revenue growth per unit growth in GDP. To be sure, a revenue shortfall need not lead to a spike in the deficit levels for the union territory's finances, as it seems to be lagging on spending commitments. Delhi's budgetary outlay was increased from Rs.76,000 crore in 2024-25 to Rs.1,00,000 crore in 2025-26. A large part of this increased on account of "allocation of Budget under Schemes/ Programmes/ Projects" which saw their allocations increase from Rs.39,000 crore in 2024-25 to Rs.59,300 crore in 2025-26 (BE) according to the Economic Survey. Numbers given in Statement 3.2 of the survey show that only Rs.33,805 crore out of the budgeted Rs.59,300 crore of this outlay had been spent by thegovernment until 18 March 2026. Unless these numbers show a drastic increase in the Revised Estimates (RE) to be presented in Tuesday's budget, the overall spending of the government is likely to be smaller than the 2025-26 BE numbers. This could potentially offset any large increase in fiscal deficit even if taxes do not meet last year's budgetary projections. The 2025-26 BE numbers had assumed a fiscal deficit of 1.03% of GSDP. To be sure, statement 3.2 also shows that final expenditure on the "Schemes/ Programmes/ Projects" head has had a significant shortfall compared to BE numbers in the last eight years. This shortfall was the highest in 2024-25, when the previous Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) government could just spend 82.2% of its budgeted 39000 crore under this head. "The Expenditure Budget of Government of NCT of Delhi is mainly financed from its own tax revenue (68.7% of Expenditure Budget in 2025-26 BE), which includes revenue collection from GST, VAT, Excise, Stamp Duty and Motor Vehicle Tax.71.3% of total Tax Revenue in 2025-26 (BE) will be from GST (including other taxes) & VAT, 10.2% from Excise, 13.1% from Stamp Duty and 5.4% from MVT", the Survey says. Professor Deepti Taneja, joint dean and professor of economics at DCAC, Delhi University, said the economic survey reinforced a focus on maintaining fiscal discipline....