India, Aug. 14 -- I first heard the phrase "Inevitable India" in a speech by Navneet Munot of HDFC Mutual Funds. He used it to describe a country that draws in capital, talent and enterprise so naturally, that its long rise seems hard to stop.

The phrase captures something real, and it stayed with me.

It also carries a quiet danger that is worth taking seriously. The danger is that we will treat a likely outcome as a settled one.

To begin with, let's separate three claims that often get bundled together in talk of the country's future: First, that India will account for a larger share of the world economy. Second, it will become a more powerful state. Third, that ordinary Indians will become broadly prosperous and secure.

The first cl...