India, April 17 -- El Niño is a cyclical warming of the equatorial Pacific Ocean that warms the world and suppresses monsoon activity in India. Last week, the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) of the United States published its monthly forecast on the development of El Niño through the rest of the year. The forecast suggests that the probability of a strong El Niño this year is higher now than previously believed. What does this mean for the monsoon this year?

The relation between the forecast for a strong El Niño and the 2026 monsoon requires a detailed look at both the forecast and how El Niño relates to the monsoon. The first thing the forecast shows ...