India, Aug. 13 -- If someone had told me in December 2025, while I was contemplating the year-ahead outlook for the Indian economy for 2026, that two months into the year, a war in West Asia would send global crude oil prices rocketing past $100/bbl, the Strait of Hormuz would be shut for at least six months and 54% of India's gas imports would get stuck, I am sure I would have painted a rather gloomy picture. But here we are, oscillating between having a peace deal and a ceasefire violation, oil at $70/bbl in one instance and $100/bbl in another, and the Strait of Hormuz open & free and closed & chargeable. Despite such a backdrop, India's growth in the April-June quarter is estimated to be at least 7% year-on-year (y-o-y).

After the wa...