India, April 14 -- Monsoon rainfall this year will likely be below normal, the Indian weather office said on Monday in its first prediction of below-normal rain in 11 years -- casting a darker cloud over an economy already concerned about growth, farm output and inflation, all collateral damage of the war in West Asia.

The last time India saw below-normal rainfall during the Southwest Monsoon was in 2023, although the India Meteorological Department's prediction that year was for normal rainfall.

Monsoon rainfall over the country is likely to be 92% of long period average (LPA) with an error margin of +/-5%, IMD  said in its first stage long range forecast for monsoon season on Monday, attributing this to the El Nino phenomenon. ...