India, Nov. 13 -- On Wednesday, the Union government announced a revised subsidy allocation for phosphatic and potassic fertilisers for the rabi (winter) cropping season. The new allocation of Rs.62,370 crore is 64% more than the Union budget allocated. This is yet another indication that the overall fertiliser subsidy allocation - the 2026-27 budget estimate was Rs.1.71 lakh crore - will be significantly higher. It will also stretch the overall fiscal math.

These numbers need to be seen in context. Just a month after the budget was presented, the US and Israel attacked Iran which later shut the Strait of Hormuz inflicting a huge disruption on hydrocarbon trade from West Asia. Fertiliser prices went through the roof and supplies nosedive...