India, Sept. 14 -- Monsoon 2026 was widely expected to have a large rainfall deficit. This is because an El Nino - a cyclical warming of the central-eastern Pacific Ocean that crimps June-September rain in India even before its winter peak - had developed by April or May, depending on the index used. At any rate, it had enough time to suppress monsoon rainfall. However, even those casually interested in the monsoon would have noticed that there is wide geographic variation in its performance, with some regions quite wet. Why is this the case? The answer to this question can not only help us foresee the impact of El Nino on the monsoon, but also the wider implications of a dry monsoon. This two-part series will do just that.

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