India, April 1 -- With a 60% chance of El Niño in the June-August period - rising to 80% in August-October - the country's farm sector must brace for possible pain . The phenomenon is associated with deficient rainfall, and 50-60% of India's net sown area, largely kharif crops , is monsoon-dependent. This involves close to 61% of India's farmer population. The need to plan ahead is more urgent this year as the disruption in fertiliser and natural gas (key for fertiliser production) shipments from West Asia must also be factored in.

If El Niño effects intensify and rainfall proves deficient - a clearer picture will emerge closer to June - pulses and rice yields could get affected, depressing farm income and pushing up food infla...