LUCKNOW, Oct. 22 -- Seat-sharing differences may be straining the Samajwadi Party-Congress alliance ahead of the 2027 Uttar Pradesh assembly elections, but the electoral arithmetic of 2024 offers both parties a compelling reason to stay together: their combined lead extended to more than 220 of the state's 403 assembly segments.

An analysis of assembly segment-wise leads in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections suggests that if the voting pattern is repeated, the INDIA bloc could pose a formidable challenge to the BJP. The BJP's Lok Sabha tally in Uttar Pradesh fell from 62 seats in 2019 to 33 in 2024, while the SP and Congress together won 43 of the state's 80 seats. The SP won 37 and the Congress six.

Nationally, the Congress won 99 seats, eme...