Nepal, March 24 -- It isn't easy to pick a person to understand a phenomenon. The sunset of the Khas-Arya ethnonational chieftain Khadga Prasad Sharma Oli, and the aurora of the political shaman, Balendra Shah, have been so dramatic that they have perplexed most analysts of the electoral shift. A narrative built around their political platforms-the CPN (UML) and the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP)-can perhaps be helpful.

The founder and chair of the RSP, Rabi Lamichhane, remains mired in controversies. Swarnim Wagle appears more like a soldier than a general. Balendra-declared a senior leader soon after joining the party-remains, to use a Churchillian quote, "a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma" despite his spectacular electora...