India, April 13 -- The primary rainfall season for India, the South West Monsoon (SWM), could be below normal or deficient in 2026, according to the first long range forecast by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) issued on April 13, 2026. The major reason for this prediction is the expected El Niño conditions in the Equatorial Pacific Ocean by the second half of SWM.

This could be a major concern for around 60 per cent of farmers in the country who are completely dependent on monsoon rainfall for the Kharif cropping season. For many regions, this is a double whammy after facing losses during the stormy pre-monsoon season of 2026 due to hailstorms and flooding.

SWM is said to be below normal when the predicted rainfall for th...