Pakistan, Oct. 5 -- Does this make an Israeli-Turkish conflict inevitable? A direct war remains a radically different proposition from strategic rivalry. Turkey is a NATO member with formidable conventional capabilities. Israel possesses one of the region's most sophisticated armed forces and maintains exceptionally close ties with the United States. Neither government has an obvious interest in a full-scale conflict.

The more plausible future is a prolonged confrontation conducted below the threshold of major war: diplomatic hostility, competing alliances, intelligence competition and periodic military encounters through third countries. However, cold wars can become hot wars. The most dangerous scenario would not begin with either Anka...