Pakistan, June 12 -- For much of the past decade, the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, better known as the Quad, has been presented as one of the most significant strategic groupings in the Indo-Pacific. Bringing together the United States, Japan, Australia and India, the forum was expected to serve as a democratic counterbalance to China's growing regional influence. Yet, as geopolitical competition intensifies, a critical question is emerging: Is the Quad being constrained less by China's rise and more by the strategic calculations of one of its own members?

Unlike NATO, the Quad was never designed as a formal military alliance. It lacks collective defence obligations, integrated command structures and binding security commitments. Its...