DAR ES SALAAM, Sept. 21 -- FOR many Tanzanians, the phrase ‘above-average rainfall may sound like a warning that rain will fall heavily almost every day throughout the season.

But according to weather experts, the phrase has a more precise scientific meaning.

It is based on historical rainfall records, location, season and the probability of different rainfall outcomes.

The distinction is becoming increasingly important as Tanzania prepares for the 2026 October-December, or Vuli, rainfall season, which the Tanzania Meteorological Authority (TMA) says will be significantly influenced by a strong El Niño.

TMA forecasts above-average to average rainfall across much of the northern coastal belt, northeastern highlands, Lake Vic...