Uganda, April 7 -- At first glance, the wars in Ukraine and Iran appear fundamentally different. Ukraine is a democracy-albeit imperfect-seeking closer ties with Europe and posing no threat to its neighbours. Iran, by contrast, is governed by a regime long accused of repression, regional destabilisation, and support for militant groups. They also sit on opposing sides of the global divide. Iran has supplied drone technology to Russia and maintains economic ties with China despite sanctions. Ukraine, meanwhile, relies on intelligence and military support from the United States and its European allies.

Yet beyond these moral and geopolitical differences, a more troubling similarity emerges: the miscalculations that drove both conflicts. In...