Uganda, April 19 -- In one of its working papers, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) warns that if global liquidity tightens, the dollar strengthens, or frontier market risk appetite shifts, capital could exit as quickly as it arrived. That warning is written about places like Uganda. Through most of 2025, foreign investors were piling into its government bonds.

By September, they held around $2.2b (Shs8.1 trillion) worth, about 12 percent of all government debt. By December, that had grown to $2.8b (Shs10.3 trillion). Foreign reserves had doubled to $6b (Shs22.2 trillion). The shilling was strengthening. For a country that global financial markets had largely ignored for decades, it felt like a turning point. There was real substance...