Nairobi, June 7 -- Nearly nine years ago, I projected that in five years long term insurance would overtake general insurance. At the time, general insurance was sitting pretty at 1.5 times the size of long term insurance, but the latter had growth, consistently outpacing general insurance.

Fast forward and the Insurance Regulatory Authority's (IRA) sectoral report for quarter three of 2025 now places the comparative factor at 1.1, indicating that parity is approaching fast. My five-year estimation, admittedly, was a bit ambitious, but the long term - general insurance "flippening", in my opinion, will materialise by 2027.

My next big call is more near-term; I predict that general insurance will experience its worst underwriting results...