Nairobi, June 16 -- On any given morning, before the first customer walks through the door, a restaurant owner is already making difficult calculations. How much did electricity cost this month? Can the business absorb another increase in supplier prices? Is it possible to retain all staff on the current payroll? Can a planned refurbishment wait another year?

These are not the conversations that attract public attention. There is rarely a headline when a neighbourhood restaurant abandons plans to expand, a pub owner cuts staff shifts to manage costs, or an entertainment venue quietly closes after years of operation.

Such decisions are becoming increasingly common. Taken individually, they appear insignificant. Taken together, they tell ...