Nairobi, July 2 -- The Ministry of Mining is on the verge of announcing the shortlist for a niobium and rare earths mining licence for Mrima Hills in Kilifi.

Thirteen companies from China, the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, India, South Korea and Chile are locked in a high-stakes battle for the prize. The shortlist was expected to be made public this week.

On paper, the government's selection criteria are rigorous. Bidders must possess extensive global experience in exploring and mining specialty minerals, verifiable financial resources, and a proven track record in complex rock engineering.

Yet, looking at the roster of contenders, an unsettling reality emerges. The bidder list appears light on the industry's true giants a...