Nairobi, May 28 -- As the public debate over Finance Bill 2026 rages, the loudest arguments are predictably about numbers - whether a 25 percent excise duty is too high, or whether a particular VAT reclassification is justified. But the real crisis facing Kenya's economy is not the mathematics. It is the volatility of the tax code itself.

The greatest single factor responsible for scarcity of foreign investment in Kenya is the insensate instability of its tax laws and incentive regimes. The central question every investor asks is this: if I start a business on the strength of the tax incentives proposed in this year's budget, can I be confident that the framework on which I built my investment will still be the law when production begins...