South Africa, June 11 -- Modern trade unit volume, by NielsenIQ's measure, moved just 1.7%. The channel doing the heavy lifting is the one most brands measure least and service worst.

So when a brand's numbers slip in the township and the informal corridor, the instinct is to reach for the campaign. That instinct is usually wrong. When a brand loses the spaza, it is rarely a loyalty problem. It is a supply problem wearing a loyalty problem's clothes.

The Q1 figures were flattered by a soft inflation window that has already shut. Consumer inflation climbed to 4% in April, the highest reading since August 2024, driven mainly by fuel.

With the fuel levy relief being phased out and oil prices holding firm, the back half of 2026 will pull h...