South Africa, March 6 -- Looking at the numbers, we see that real GDP is forecast at around +1.4% for 2026, while real retail trade sales are expected to grow at roughly +2% to +2.5%, i.e. lower than 2025's performance. Consumer confidence remains negative at -9 in Q4 2025 and household debt and credit extension continue to rise.

The picture emerging is one of stabilisation, but not acceleration.

According to Carey Leighton, economist at Trade Intelligence (Ti), "The economic indicators are showing signs of moving in the right direction, but they are doing so off a low base.

Stabilisation is helpful, but it doesn't immediately translate into meaningful demand expansion in FMCG retail."

For retailers, suppliers and service providers, t...