Dhaka, March 29 -- The 10,000 attendees descending on the oil and gas industry's marquee annual get-together in Houston all had one thing on their minds. Yet even as conflict in the Gulf dominated talk at CERAWeek, the scope of disruption that has already happened seemed to go little acknowledged on financial markets. Executives unable to address already-rising shortages are receiving few reliable signals to invest in ramping up new supplies. They may well be whistling past the biggest disruption of fossil fuels in their lifetimes.

Energy demand is largely fixed in the short run. Modern cities and industry cannot simply switch off. Ever since the United States and Israel launched joint strikes on Iran, leading to escalating hostilities t...