New Delhi, June 20 -- India's 2026 macro outlook will hinge on monsoon performance, while the investor base continues to get younger and more geographically dispersed, and trading activity remains heavily concentrated among large investors, the National Stock Exchange said in its latest report.

The National Stock Exchange flagged the monsoon as the key macro risk for 2026. NSE said IMD has revised its South-West monsoon forecast to 90 per cent of the long-period average, one of its lowest forecasted values on record, with a 60 per cent probability of deficient rainfall and a further 24 per cent probability of below-normal rainfall. "For 2026, the key challenge is the emergence of El Nino risk," the report noted. The downside skew is visi...