New Delhi, Sept. 25 -- Kotak Institutional Equities sees downside risk to its USD 88 billion forecast for India's gold imports in FY27 after official monthly imports fell sharply from May, although festive demand could drive a recovery.

"We assume US$88 bn of gold imports in FY2027E; downside risks exist based on 5MFY27 trends although demand will pick up over the forthcoming festive season," Kotak said in a strategy report dated September 23.

Gold imports stood at USD 17.5 billion in the first five months of FY27, compared with USD 16.9 billion in the same period a year earlier. Imports totalled USD 72 billion in FY26, according to the report.

Kotak said the recent monthly decline followed an increase in gold import duty from 6 per ce...