New Delhi, June 13 -- Inflation is headed higher to 5.0 per cent in FY27 with core at 4.6 per cent, ICICI Bank Global Markets said, as West Asia conflict and a below-normal monsoon keep upside risks alive. The brokerage now sees a case for policy rates to be hiked by 50-75 bps, with the MPC already acknowledging higher H2 estimates.

"Inflation moved to 16-month high," ICICI Bank Global Markets noted in its June 12, 2026 report. CPI rose to 3.94 per cent YoY in May from 3.48 per cent in April, slightly below the firm's 4.05 per cent estimate but still showing broad-based pressure. Food inflation accelerated to 4.8 per cent YoY from 4.2 per cent in April, core to 3.9 per cent from 3.7 per cent, and energy to 1.9 per cent from 0.4 per cent....