New Delhi, June 14 -- Inflation in India has a high probability of shooting through the Reserve Bank of India's targets in the second half of the financial year 2026-27, with a potential spike beyond the 6% upper band, according to brokerage firm Prabhudas Lilladher.

As El Nino combines with geopolitical supply-chain disruptions to pressure food and input prices, the brokerage flagged deficient monsoons, low reservoir levels and elevated crude-linked costs as key risks ahead.

"Given this backdrop and current macroeconomic and geopolitical backdrop, we expect a spike in inflation which can even go beyond RBI upper band of 6% in 2H27," the brokerage said in its June 12 research report.

The firm noted IMD and Skymet are predicting El Nino...