New Delhi, April 15 -- India's agriculture sector may face a challenging year ahead amid concerns over weak monsoon, possible El Nino conditions, and fertilizer supply risks linked to the West Asia conflict, according to a report by ICRA.

The India Meteorological Department's (IMD) first long-range forecast (LRF) for the 2026 Southwest Monsoon pegs rainfall at 92% (+-5%) of the Long Period Average (LPA), indicating below-normal rainfall. ICRA noted that the mid-point estimate is the lowest first LRF in at least 25 years, compared to a range of 93%-106% of LPA seen earlier. This marks a sharp reversal from 2025 and 2024, when rainfall was above normal at 108% of LPA.

Below-normal rainfall is expected to affect kharif crop sowing, which d...