New Delhi, May 30 -- The duration of the disruption in the Strait of Hormuz remains the "single most consequential variable" for India's external sector and inflation outlook, according to the Finance Ministry's Monthly Economic Review for May 2026, which warned that prolonged energy supply disruptions could amplify price pressures and could also impact the growth trajectory.

The review, released by the Department of Economic Affairs (DEA), said India's near-term economic outlook remains one of "cautious resilience," supported by stable domestic fundamentals, strong services exports, resilient labour markets and comfortable foreign exchange reserves.

However, it cautioned that the global environment has become significantly more challen...