New Delhi, April 30 -- A below-normal monsoon in 2026 could push inflation higher in India, with an estimated 0.4 per cent impact on Consumer Price Index (CPI), according to a report by ICICI Bank.

The report highlighted that the impact will largely be driven by rain-fed crops, which account for 6.1 per cent of the CPI basket, even as the overall food basket carries a weight of 34.8 per cent.

It noted that there is an upside risk to food inflation, which is currently estimated at 4.7 per cent, particularly as food prices are already showing signs of picking up. Data showed that food inflation averaged 3.2 per cent between January and March, compared to 7.3 per cent in 2025.

It said "there is an upside risk to food inflation estimate of...