New Delhi, April 17 -- Indian banks are likely to keep asset quality under control over the next two years, with gross non-performing assets (NPAs) projected at 2.0-2.2 per cent by March 2027, only a shade higher than the estimated historic low of 2.0 per cent as of March 2026, according to ratingas agency Crisil Ratings. The resilience will be led by strong corporate balance sheets, even as the MSME segment faces pressure from the ongoing West Asia conflict.

Crisil's base case assumes the conflict-led disruption and stabilization will last 3-4 months in the current fiscal, moderating GDP growth to 7.1 per cent this year from 7.6 per cent last year, with risks tilted to the downside. Yet, the banking sector's overall NPA trajectory is ex...