Bangladesh, June 23 -- The downfall of a prime minister is often explained through personality, mistakes, or political miscalculation. Yet politics is rarely that simple. If Sir Keir Starmer were to leave office and Andy Burnham were to inherit the leadership of Britain and the Labour Party, the transition would raise a larger question: Is Labours problem really about leadership, or is it about a political system that increasingly punishes governments regardless of what they achieve?

For much of modern British history, voters have tended to reward governments that deliver tangible improvements to daily life. Today, however, the relationship between policy success and political popularity appears increasingly disconnected. A government ma...