India, July 12 -- The contest over critical minerals is usually framed as a race for deposits. The more consequential contest is over what happens to the ore after it leaves the ground. Mining is geographically diffuse, processing is not. It is the separation, refining, and alloying stages, the midstream, where supply chains narrow to a handful of chokepoints, and where a single export licence can idle factories a continent away.

Demand is the backdrop. The International Energy Agency projects lithium demand rising several-fold and graphite and rare-earth demand more than doubling by 2040, driven by batteries, magnets, and grids. Supply, however, is tightening at the processing stage rather than easing. Per the IEA's Global Critical Mine...