New Delhi, Oct. 3 -- New York - The global economy is settling into a new normal built around tariffs, not treaties, and the shock is only beginning to show. President Donald Trump's "reciprocal" tariff regime has driven the United States' average effective tariff rate to its highest level in generations, and the ripple effects are moving along trade routes from Shenzhen to Sinaloa. For now, headline growth looks resilient. Beneath the surface, companies are rewriting supply chains, households are paying more for basics, and policymakers are bracing for a slower 2026 as the full weight of higher import taxes finally lands.

What distinguishes this tariff wave from past flare ups is its breadth and predictability. Rather than a series of t...