New Delhi, Oct. 13 -- A tanker captain approaching the Strait of Hormuz this week is being told three different things by three different authorities. The Revolutionary Guards say the strait is closed. US Central Command says roughly 20 million barrels are still moving through it. And the maritime incident logs, which do not take sides, record tankers being hit.

a bargain that neither Tehran nor Washington can afford to close, and neither can afford to walk away from. Two elections, Israel's on October 27 and the American midterms on November 3, now sit over every decision, and officials on both sides insist they do not.

The war began on February 28. A US naval blockade followed in April, a June memorandum eased it, and the ceasefire co...