AUSTIN, July 21 -- Tesla is set to report second-quarter 2026 earnings Tuesday afternoon, and before the numbers arrive, the terms of the debate are already clear: the company committed in April to more than $25 billion in AI and robotics capital expenditure for the full year, promised investors negative free cash flow through December, and told shareholders to judge it not by what it sells today but by what it promises to deploy tomorrow. Tuesday's report will show how much of that trajectory is holding.

The company set expectations at Q1 in late April. Chief Financial Officer Vaibhav Taneja said the investment cycle would produce negative free cash flow for the rest of 2026 as Tesla placed orders for chip-making equipment, expanded its...