New Delhi, July 2 -- WASHINGTON - The global oil market and Donald Trump's former national security adviser are reaching opposite conclusions about the Iran ceasefire, and both may be correct.

Brent crude fell to $70.65 on Wednesday, Al Jazeera reported - the lowest level since before the US-Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear sites in February opened the most serious US-Iran confrontation in decades. Markets price what traders believe, and what oil traders are now pricing is the conviction that the Islamabad MoU will hold through its window and probably beyond. The Strait of Hormuz, which carries roughly 20 percent of the world's traded oil, is open. The Doha talks this week produced a communications hotline and $3 billion in unfrozen Ir...