New Delhi, Aug. 11 -- The decision Apple faces before its September hardware event has rarely been starker. A supply chain analysis released Monday projects that the iPhone 18 Pro will cost the company 38 to 40 percent more to manufacture than the iPhone 17 Pro, a component cost surge the same size as the one that drove Mac and iPad prices higher in June. Whether Apple absorbs it or passes it to iPhone buyers is the question six weeks of silence has left open.

Market research firm TrendForce released the estimate Monday, with the figure circulating across technology publications including 9to5Mac, AppleInsider, and MacRumors. The primary driver is memory. Wccftech, reporting on TrendForce's analysis, cited an estimate that DRAM component...